Shealer’s Notebook: Sizing up the best and worst playoff systems
It’s playoff time! And depending on the state, that might not always be good news. Today, I size up the best and worst fall-season high school playoff systems, which also can be sub-titled the most demanding and the least competitive.…
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Continue ReadingIt’s playoff time!
And depending on the state, that might not always be good news.
Today, I size up the best and worst fall-season high school playoff systems, which also can be sub-titled the most demanding and the least competitive. For full disclosure, I have been covering high school soccer on the national stage for more than 20 years and I formerly worked (briefly) for a state association, therefore I’m pretty well versed in the nuances of association-based playoff systems and the complexities and politics that come with it.
“Who has the best playoff system?” is a question I’m often asked. It’s a bit of a loaded question, often begging for a particular response. Is it a unique format? Is it a system that allows the best teams a chance to meet late in the playoffs instead of the early rounds? Is it the most grueling, based on either the number or quality of teams? There are a lot of ways to answer that question, but before we get there let’s start with …
THE WORST …
State association playoff systems inherently start on the local scene and build toward a state final, usually creating a title match that pits East vs. West or North vs. South. Early rounds are often defined as sectional, regional, district, etc., etc., before the real “state tournament” kicks in. The setup usually is tied to the state’s governance, meaning the association might only oversee and be accountable for the actual “state tournament” part of the process, while the earlier rounds see the gate revenue and accountability stay in that section, region, or district. It’s also important to note, most states have the same format for all sports, so what seems unfair for soccer in a given section, district, region, etc., might be perfectly fine for other sports in that state.
Now, while Indiana offers some of the best girls high school soccer in the nation, it also has the worst playoff format when it comes to allowing the best teams to advance, especially in Class 3A — the state’s large schools and most competitive class. Part of the problem stems from the Indianapolis suburban domination of the sport. Indianapolis has put at least one team in the state final in 26 of the 27 years of the event. Between 1994 and 2010, the Indianapolis area was limited to one state finalist, but since 2011 the current set-up has resulted in 14 Indy teams in state finals. The problem isn’t so much with the finals, but rather the opening round — otherwise known as sectionals. There are between five and seven teams in each of the 16 Class 3A sectional tournaments, which are hyper-local events and the pairings are set by blind draw.
Exhibit A on why this is a bad set-up … Section 8 featured the No. 1 and No. 3-ranked teams in the entire state as voted on by the coaches. Not only did that mean one team would be eliminated before the final 16, it just so happened they drew each other in a first-round playoff game. Although No. 1-ranked Noblesville held off No. 3-ranked Hamilton Southeastern, it cheapened the rest of the sectional as a winless team and a sub-.500 squad received first-round byes, and Noblesville cruised to the section title, mounting a 7-0 win along the way. Perhaps more damning than having two of the state’s top three teams play in the opening round, Section 10 featured four teams ranked in the top 12 in the state. Between Sections 8 and 10, teams ranked 3, 6, 10, and 12 in the entire state were eliminated in the first week, well before the final 16.
Exhibit B … The failure on the sectional level allows lower-level teams to advance to the regional tournament in the name of geographical representation. The outcomes, then, are quite predictable. This past fall, six of the eight Class 3A regional semifinals were decided by three or more goals, including 6-0 and 7-2 outcomes. Now, once Indiana reaches the regional final round (i.e. state quarterfinals), the remaining teams are quite deserving, and the results bear that out. In the six matches leading to this week’s state final, there was one 2-0 contest, one 2-1 contest, three 1-0 matches, and one scoreless match that went to penalty kicks. Unfortunately, the damage to the overall state tournament event had already been done as more than half of the state’s top 15 teams are eliminated in the opening two matches.
Well, instead of only complaining, here’s a solution …
Revamp from 16 to eight sections (by merging sections) and seed the teams, either by point system or win-loss percentage. This would likely eliminate the chance of Top 10 teams meeting until at least the Round of 16, or even in the state quarterfinals.
The Worst, Part 2.
Without going into great detail, Kentucky boys suffer the same issue as Indiana girls. Again, the problem stems from a loaded Louisville district that tends to dominate on the state level, yet also requires many of the state’s top-ranked teams to get eliminated in the first couple of rounds.
The Worst, Part 3.
Rhode Island. There’s no practical reason why this state, with only 45 schools, should crown three state champions. Now, given the small size of the state, there’s no playoff format problem, only one of perception. There are a total of 15 Division I schools, 16 in Division II and 14 in Division III. Therefore, winning a state title in Rhode Island means the team is the best out of 15 teams. Heck, most states have conferences with more than 15 schools. Each fall, Baltimore County in Maryland crowns a county champ prior to the playoffs and while that team seldom factors on the state level, the accomplishment is statistically more impressive than winning a state title in Rhode Island. Rhode Island should return to a two-class system. At least this would mean a Rhode Island state title would statistically equivalent to the Baltimore County league title.
Now, finally getting back to the question of the best, I offer these formats as the ideal state playoff systems.
The Best … Pennsylvania.
The Keystone State is an interesting case study since the PIAA state playoff system was brought to the forefront after districts already were well established and had their own postseasons in place. The state football system, with the district twist, is quite complex to the outsider. But I digress.
The PIAA soccer state playoffs actually have an NCAA Tournament feel. The reason why I say this, Pennsylvania is one of only a few states where you can lose a postseason game and get a second chance, similar to NCAA teams losing in the conference tournament yet still advancing to the NCAA Tournament. In Pennsylvania, district champs generally automatically receive a bid to the 16-team state tournament while the remaining positions are filled by at-large teams, as determined by the district finish.
It’s important to note, the state has 12 districts — but not all have teams in each of the state’s four classifications. In addition, there are three districts that dominate the state, both competitively and well as in population — District 1 (suburban Philadelphia), District 3 (state Capitol/Harrisburg region), and District 7 (WPIAL — Pittsburgh).
The state’s playoff system is contested exclusively on the district level until the final 16 earn places in the state tournament.
Focusing on Class 4A, the state’s largest schools, and generally the highest level of competition, Districts 5, 8, and 9 do not have 4A programs, therefore the 16-team tournament is filled by teams from the other nine districts. Districts 2, 4, 6, and 10 are the smallest in terms of the quantity of 4A schools and generally the weakest in terms of competition. The District 2 and 4 champs play-off for a spot in the final 16, and the same for Districts 6 and 10. District 11 gets two state tournament spots, while District 12 receives one. With those five spots accounted for, that leaves the power districts 1, 3, and 7 with the balance of the state playoff spots — five teams from District 1, four from District 3, and two from District 7. In addition to the district champ, all of the district semifinalists in Districts 1 and 3 advance to the state tournament as does the District 7 runner-up and the District 1 consolation (fifth place) champion.
The format allows for the power areas with strong programs to enter more teams in the state tournament, and the results bear that out. The fall state tournament started in 1992 for girls and either a District 1 or 7 team has won every large-school state title since. In fact, the large-school state final has featured a District 1 vs. District 1 or District 7 vs. District 1 matchup nine of the last 10 years. There hasn’t been a non-District 1, 3, or 7 team in the final since 2010. On the boys side, the results are equally as compelling. Every boys large-school state finalist since 2009 has come from Districts 1, 3, and 7.
The Best, Part 2.
Tennessee Class AAA, AA, and A fall girls.
Personally, I’m a big fan of playoff systems that allow stronger regions the opportunity to advance more teams to the state tournament, or at least allow them a chance to play deeper into the postseason.
Tennessee meets that threshold thanks to a second-chance district opportunity and a “sectional” round.
Like most states, Tennessee’s postseason starts on the district level and advances to a regional level, but there’s a twist. The district runners-up advance to the regional semifinals and, later, the regional runners-up advance to the sectional round. At this stage, the event becomes single-elimination as the sectional winner moves on to the state quarterfinals.
The net result here, stronger districts get a chance to advance two teams to the state quarterfinals, and once there, those teams are pitted on opposite sides of the bracket and thus could play for the state title. Tennessee is the only fall state with this system.
In practical terms, Tennessee soccer, especially in Class AAA, is more balanced with state title contenders from several different parts, unlike states such as Indiana or Kentucky, where the power is focused in one or two metro markets. In this year’s Class AAA tournament, District 15 — the Memphis area — placed both Houston and Collierville in the state tournament. Tracking their path, Houston beat Collierville for the district title, giving the team its first loss of the season, yet both advanced to the regionals. Collierville returned the favor and won the regional title, but again both advanced. Both then won their sectional contest to advance to this week’s state quarterfinals. Earlier this week, both teams won quarterfinal contests to advance to Thursday’s semifinals with a chance at a third postseason meeting between these powers Saturday in the state final. Of course, highly ranked Bearden and Ravenwood are aiming to oust the Memphis schools before the weekend.
The Best, Part 3.
Maryland. I never thought this state would make this sort of list, but a recent format change under a young executive director has made for a Pennsylvania- or Tennessee-like playoff experience, but without sacrificing a single-elimination tournament.
First, a bit of history. The state’s four classes are sub-divided into four regions. Historically, the four region champions advanced to the state semifinals and from there a champion was crowned. Like many states with similar structures, the state semifinals revealed the competitive imbalance between regions, often resulting in 4-0 and 5-0 state semifinal games. In the two larger-school classes, 4A and 3A, the state boys tournament have long been dominated by the West region (formerly known as Region I). Class 4A West and Class 3A West are comprised of the more affluent and diverse Montgomery County schools, part of the D.C. Metro area. In Class 4A, this region has claimed 12 of the past 16 state titles. While Class 3A has become more equally competitive across regions, 3A West once strung together seven straight years of state champions. It was long assumed that the 3A West champ was basically a shoo-in for the state title, and often the toughest hurdle was in the region final — not the state final.
The MPSSAA recently made two adjustments to the tournament on the region level, but the focus here is the most recent change. Teams are seeded in the region tournament and play down to the region final. However, instead of contesting a region final, both of the region’s semifinal winners advance to the state quarterfinals. The teams are re-seeded for the quarterfinals and then play down from that point. The major benefit of this system is the chance two teams from the same region could play for the state title if they are truly the best teams in the state instead of one having to get eliminated in the region final. In the first year of this format, 4A West Walt Whitman boys defeated league rival and fellow 4A West member Thomas Wootton in the semifinals en route to a state title. This was never possible before 2019.